Flemington 10 July

Track a slow 7.

Race 1: Royal Bender (2), Dutchy's Lass (4), Cydiana Star (1)

Normally the early races have few chances but this is a tough starting race. Have gone with the undefeated Royal Bender - strong slow track win on debut in good time when streeted the field, so may be a superior wet tracker.

Dutchy's Lass is first up and had good form last time in work and expect it to be improved on its first campaign.

Cydiana Star was disappointing last start but have given it another chance on a less boggy track.

Big watch on Little Artist who bolted in at only start in slow time and Barangaroo the first starter for the Moody stable.

Race 2: Big Spirit (2), Our Baby Bonus (1), Happy Angel (1)

Tough to choose between the top two, did the form for a heavy track and on that basis went for Big Spirit who will be improved after its last run (first in 11 weeks) and was unbeaten in 2 starts on heavy tracks. Now that the track has been upgraded to slow overnight, the uncertainties about Our Baby Bonus have reduced. Still, I felt it was disappointing last start and is up 3.5kg.

I will stick with Big Spirit, but with less confidence now with the upgrade.

Put Happy Angel in for third who has a great record at the distance and held on for a win last start at the Valley.

Race 3: Abitofado (4), Tinamou (5), Only He Knows (1)

If Rafaello was in this race, it would be a short priced favourite and a great third by Abitofado is enough for me. Has also won 4 from 8 on wet tracks and placed 3 from 4 at the distance. Seems a solid each way bet.

Tinamou is flying but is up in grade but is sure to run well again. It takes a while to find form but usually holds it once the form arrives. Will run well.

Have put Only He Knows in for third. The downgrade of the track is not in his favour but a good win last start at Flemington is great form for this, but is up 3kgs on that run and with an apprentice jockey (last run G Boss).

Race 4: Shylocks Daughter (10), Oak Heart (1), Niptious (4)

While Shylocks Daughter is up to the 2500m for the first time, its win last start was very impressive. Gives the impression the distance wont be a problem.

Oak Heart and Niptious have been racing in great form together and I doubt much will separate them again this week.

Race 5: Midnight Glory (1), Good Value (2), Guadacanal (8)

Was very keen on Midnight Glory until the track was downgraded til a slow 7, but with experience at 1730m last start, happy to stick with him again.

Hard to ignore unbeaten Good Value but this is tougher than last start and up in distance.

Guadacanal flew home from 9th on the turn at Traralgon last start over 1430 with 58kgs and will appreciate the drop back to 53kg, and perhaps the extra distance of today's 1600m.

Big watch on Lord of Arms who has had two starts this time in for an easy win in a maiden when flow home, and ran in the same style again when just missed last start at Bendigo. If they are making ground in the conditions, he is in with a big chance, but depending on the weather today, that is a risk.

Race 6: Doubtful Jack (5), Savquaw (7), Trustus (9)

With the scratching of Ghostmilk, Doubtful Jack looks the bet of the day. Settles on the pace and has sprinted away for significant wins in the past two weeks. Clear top pick.

Savquaw is racing well, loves the wet tracks but is back in distance from the 2000m, but giving he pulled hard during its last start suggesting it is better suited to the faster tempo shorter distance.

Trustus is in good form and ran on well last week although no match for Doubtful Jack. Expect it to be better suited at the 1600m this week.

Race 7: Midnight Mustang (3) Whiston (7) Stanzout (1)

Great first up run by Midnight Mustang and would have been closer had it not been held up for a run in the straight. Previously unbeaten in slow tracks and loves the track and distance.

Whiston was very impressive last start coming inside other runners and loves wet tracks.

Stacks of chances for the minor placing including Stanzout, El Mandon, Grand Duels, Elusive Touch and Ferocia.

Race 8: Winged Charm (2) Mont Fleuri (1) Nenagh (6)

Looks a race between the top 2 and happy to be on Winged Charm. Ran on brilliantly last start to pip Mont Fleuri for 2nd by a nose last time they met and expect it to be improved now its third run for a spell. Meets Mont Fleuri slghtly worse off at the weights.

Mont Fleuri was terrific last start and there's not much between the top 2, but not sure Flemington is its best track, with only a third from 4 starts.

Nenagh ran well last start and is sure to be close again.


BEST BETS: Doubtful Jack - race 6 number 5
Winged Charm - race 8 number 2
Abitofado - race 3 number 4 (each way)

Happy punting.

RESULTS & LEARNINGS

I think its very important to review the results of a meeting to see what you may have missed in reviewing the form pre-race.

Race 1. What a great start to the tipping blog. Royal Bender sat just off the pace and sprinted past Cydiana Star to win well. If you could always back a horse that settled in the first 3 or 4 and had the best acceleration of any in the field... punting would be easy.

Looks like I was correct with Royal Bender being a superior wet tracker. It handled the track beautifully and accelerated strongly when called upon. The well backed Little Artist ($2.70F) never seemed to handle the going and the 2nd favourite, the first starter Ballydoyle ($5.00), looked good but had no real zip and finished 5th.

I often like to follow the money in the betting ring, but this race showed that this "rule" doesnt always work... with Royal Bender drifting and the two well backed horses finishing unplaced.

Winner: Royal Bender $6.50 3rd favourite (paid $7.70 s/tab). Favourite was Little Artist $2.70 ran 9th.

Best run from the race... the winner Royal Bender.

Race 2. If only it was this easy all the time. Big Spirit sat just off the pace set by Our Baby Bonus, and was under a tight hold when it took the lead at the 300m mark. It sprinted away for a comfortable win. Happy Angel ran home well for 2nd after not looking comfortable on the fence, dropped back to near last and followed the run of Big Spirit but didnt threaten. Might be better on the outside of horses.

I was right with concerns about Our Baby Bonus. If a horse cant accelerate in the last 200m it will rarely win, and Our Baby Bonus didnt make ground last start and weakened again this time.

Interestingly there was very little money for any horse in the betting ring.

Winner: Big Spirit $4.80 (2nd fav), paid $4.70 on s/tab. Favourite was Our Baby Bonus $2.25, ran 4th.

Best runs from the race.... Big Spirit and Happy Angel.

Race 3. Well the run couldn't continue... and my selection ran 2nd this time around.

Race won by Miss Lily Rose who I didnt have in my top 3. It was 2nd favourite at $4.80 and thus was right in the market. It was 3rd up at 1800m with a last start 2nd at MV running on from 7th at the turn when $4.00 fav. That all reads very good and it would appear to have been one I missed. What put me off was its 1 win from 16 starts.... although it had been placed 9 from 16.

Also Miss Lily Rose was scratched from an easier midweek run by trainer Mick Price for this race. A good guide as it turns out!

Abitofado ran a solid 2nd at good odds and was a good call as an each way bet. Tinamou was disappointing and may not have appreciated not being able to dominate the field in the lead.

Winner: Miss Lily Rose $5.50 second fav. Favourite was Tinamou $2.25, ran 3rd.

Best run from the race. Miss Lily Rose. Will win again on that run.

Race 4. Outsider wins for the first time today. Figure of Speech wins and pays $15.50 on s/tab (SP $12). Last start 5th and wasn't making ground at the end. Not sure you can take much from this race in terms of form. It got messy on the turn and Shylocks Daughter and Oak Heart were beyond midfield on the rails and moved out looking for clear runs and both were blocked and held up. Shylocks Daughter for about 200m and then ran on fairly. Oak Heart was disappointing.

Lesson is that I like horses that sit in the first half of the field... the two favourites in this didnt and there is always a risk of interference coming from behind.

Winner: Figure of Speech $12 (5th favourite). Favourite was Oak Heart ($3.00) ran 9th.

Best run for the race: Nil. Dont think will be a reliable form race.

Race 5. When the favourite is $4 or over, its a neon sign to me that its a mugs game to bet in these races. Too many chances. This race had two equal favourites at $6.

This race was won by Exclusive Choice who came from last at the turn to win at 1600m for the first time and won well (even though it got tired in the last 50m). Exclusive Choice may be a Flemington horse, 1 previous start here for a 2nd, and it balanced up nicely up the long straight.

Both the winner and Supercheap (2nd) made their runs down the middle of the track, so perhaps the inside is starting to suffer. Supercheap's last start was a good 4th coming from 9th on the turn at SP $15. Its always good to see horses made ground at their last start... it wont win if it cant run faster than other horses in the last 400m!!!

Winner: Exclusive Choice $9.00 (equal 4th favourite). Equal favourites Lord of Arms ($6) 3rd and Good Value ($6), ran 4th.

Best run from the race: Exclusive Choice.

Race 6. There is a reason why last start winners are the basis for many systems. Doubtful Jack has been able to sprint away from its rivals in its last 2 starts by big margins... and made a good field look second rate again. Always include last start winners in any betting thoughts you have.

Winner: Doubtful Jack $1.60 favourite.

Best run from the race: Doubtful Jack made them look ordinary.

Race 7. Last start winner Elusive Touch was well backed from $4 to $3 and just bloused on the line by Elumino in a slick time of 1.10.48 on a slow track. Elumino was a bit hard to get, last start 3rd but it didnt show any of the dash then that it did here... made up 8 lengths in the last 400m today.

Probably could have tipped Elusive Touch given it was 1 from 1 at Flemington and had a great record at the distance. But I thought it a risk as it had never run on a slow or heavy track (I did the form initially for a heavy track).

Again the track seems to favour the outside horses, but its certainly not a bog on the inside.

Race 8. Dorsoduro came nicely down the outside to win comfortably. Winged Charm was well backed to start a $2.50 but drew barrier 2, was therefore on or close to the rails down the straight and found nothing and plodded only to finish last.

The lesson from this race is that if you observe that the winners seem to be coming out wide, or at least down the middle of the track, then horses drawn inside are in serious trouble.

Winner: Dorsoduro $6.00, 2nd favourite. Favourite Winged Charm $2.50, ran 13th and last.

Winner: Elumino $13.00 (5th favourite). Favourite Elusive Touch $3.00, ran 2nd

Best run from the race. Elusive Touch. Led and just pipped (Cant see that Elumino can reproduce that form)

Meeting Summary:

In the 8 races
- races won by favourites 1
- races won by the top 3 favourites 5
- races won by horses outside the top 3 favourites 3

Races won by last start winners 2 out of 8

Races won by last start place getters 5 out of 8

Best Bet results:

Race 3 # 4. Abitofado. Started $10.00 Placed 2nd (S/tab Place Div $2.30)
Race 6 # 5. Doubtful Jack. Started $1.60. WON (S/tab Win Div $1.60)
Race 8 # 2. Winged Charm. Started $2.50. 13th.

Outcome: Bet 3. Collect $2.75. Result -$0.25
(1/2 unit for EW bet, 1 unit for win bets)

Blackbook:

Royal Bender (especially on wet tracks)
Miss Lily Rose
Exclusive Choice (at Flemington)
Doubtful Jack. Look for it in the spring.

System Results:
- LSW system. 2 bets. Collect $1.60. Result -0.40
- Money Ladder. 3 bets. Collect $1.60. Result -1.40
- 3yo fillies. 1 bet. Collect $nil. Result -1
- Three for Four. 4 bets. Result +$4.80